美联储宽松政策惠及新兴市场

9月12日，巴克莱研究团队发布了一份关于新兴市场经济和策略展望的季度报告。报告认为，美联储政策适度宽松将利好所有新兴市场。

巴克莱表示，在今年的大部分时间里，美联储的政策一直限制着新兴市场资产。但随着美联储即将降息，这一情况正在迅速发生改变。美联储转向更加宽松的立场已经足以支撑近期新兴市场利率的重新定价。

Regarding China, Barclays expects that China's monetary and fiscal policies will continue to provide gradual support, rather than large-scale, aggressive stimulus. For monetary policy, following the 10 basis point cut in the key policy rate, the 7-day reverse repo rate, in July, Barclays anticipates that the People's Bank of China will cut this rate by another 10 basis points each in 4Q22, 1Q23, and 2Q23.

On the fiscal policy side, Barclays expects the Ministry of Finance to accelerate the issuance of local government special bonds, aiming to complete this year's issuance plan by the end of October or early November. This will provide support for infrastructure investment. The firm's base case forecast is that infrastructure investment growth will remain robust, at 8%, in 2H24, after increases of 8% in 1H23 and 2022.